As we move to the final sim tonight we see the AL race heating up. Back around the middle of August I said that the AL race was over, that the five teams, Chicago, LA, New York, Boston, and Oakland were for sure locks. Chicago and LA were primed for Division titles, Boston and New York would fight to the end for the AL East, and as the last three years Oakland would grab the Wild Card and turn all sights on knocking out LA for a 3rd straight season. But now things are changing. Kansas City is surging, Oakland is surging, and those teams we saw as locks are struggling. Even Toronto and San Francisco, while most likely they will not make it, they are making things interesting.
AL East
New York-
Coming in to last night it seemed that New York was surging to be a true contender in the AL. They had grown they lead over Boston and were playing like it was October. Then we saw New York hit a road block. The Yankees stumbled in last night's sim to a 6-9 record. Kansas City took 5 out of 6 vs New York last night. New York saw their lead shrink from five games to three, and even at one point during the sim Boston was back within 1. Tonight New York enters with a 3 game lead while playing three teams they could meet in the playoffs, Chicago, Oakland, and LA, then a series against rebuilding Texas to end the season. This will be a true test for New York. If they can escape this gauntlet they will be battle tested for the playoffs, but if they slump through, the Yankees could be in for a short October.
Boston-
Boston saw a large AL East lead slip away thanks to an 11-18 month of August. They now see what was once a large Wild Card lead held by the Yankees/Red Sox shrink to now being tied with the Kansas City Royals and having Oakland just 2.5 games back. Boston has gotten closer to New York thanks to their struggling start to September. Boston has rebounded to an 8-7 start to September. Tonight, if you ask me, they have a good shot to rebound back and take control of not only the ALE, but god forbid the ALWC. While New York plays a playoff packed final sim, Boston will play some re-builders. Boston first week will be home games vs Minnesota and Texas. They will need to take atleast 5 of 7 against them. But then the final week of the season gets tricky, but doable. Boston goes to a hot San Francisco team then ends the season on the road in Kansas City. If the Red Sox are fighting for the WC 1 seed this will be a huge series for them.
Toronto-
The Jays were not realitive at all until Sim 9. They Jays took that sim to jump Oakland and put them self within an ear shot of the Wild Card. The Jays though, fell back a step last night. A 6-9 Sim 10 has put Toronto 8.5 out of the AL East race and 5.5 out of the AL Wild Card Spot. The Jays come in to tonight facing three of the worst teams in baseball, and the best team in the American League. The Jays will play Minnesota at home before taking on Los Angeles in Toronto for a four game series. The Jays then close out the season in Cleveland and Baltimore. The Jays must split the series with LA and take advantage of the three other series vs weaker teams.
AL Central
Chicago-
There is no doubt that SMM has put himself not only in contention for a GM of the Year nomination, but he has put his team in to contention for an AL pennant. Coming in to last night Chicago had an un noticed 17-8 record in July and 19-9 record in August. Chicago also acquired Andrew McCutchen at the Trade Deadline. The Sox though hit the wall last night. The Sox hit around a bad 4-11 start to September. While they sit in a better position still than most division leaders right now (that aren't LA or Arizona) they have a team hot on their tail. Kansas City who had a strong sim last night has moved within 4 games. Chicago will need to do well at New York to start the sim to try to get the number 2 seed in the AL. Then with series vs BAL and in Texas they can build on their lead if they can take advantage of it before closing it out at home vs San Francisco. It is important to note though that San Francisco swept Chicago in San Fran to close out Sim 10.
Kansas City-
Kansas City is on a tear right now. An 18-10 August and now a 10-4 start to the month of September has moved Kansas City from way outside to 4 games out of the AL Central lead and tied for the AL Wild Card spot. Kansas City did itself a huge favor by taking 3 out of 4 from Oakland in Oakland last night, this was of course the last loss Oakland had before starting a 10 game win streak. Kansas City though may have one of the hardest final schedules of the year of potential playoff teams. Kansas City will open the sim in Los Angeles before heading in to a must win four game series in Texas. Kansas City is going to have to not only win the series in Texas but potentially have to sweep, because they close out the sim at home with a three game series vs Oakland, and a three game series vs Boston. That final week amount to a final playoff that could knock teams out of the playoffs in one swoop. Kansas City vs Oakland will be the series to watch this sim.
AL West
Los Angeles-
LA has clinched a playoff spot and the division and soon the number 1 overall seed in the American League. But LA has to do something they have failed to do the past two regular seasons.... FINISH. LA has struggled to end the last two seasons playing below average baseball in September which many believe has hurt them and led to the two 1st round exits. LA is 10-4 in September so far. They play 3 out of 4 teams that are fighting for playoff spots. This will be huge for LA as if they can get through this unscathed and playing great baseball that could propel LA in to September which some much needed momentum.
Oakland-
Oakland is once again getting hot in September. Oakland left last night on a 10 game winning streak and put themselves back in the Wild Card hunt now 2.5 games back. But damage has been done to Oakland that they are now trying to recover from. Oakland went 13-18 in August then opened last nights sim by losing their first four games moving their record to 13-22 before running a 10 game winning streak and pushing back up the standings. Oakland did this in 2015 when they went on a huge run to almost over take LA for the ALW and giving them momentum to then go beat LA in the ALDS. The Athletics were hot in September last year too again giving them momentum to beat LA and go on to when the American League Pennant. Oakland will play some teams this sim looking to improve on their playoff spots. They open in Oakland against a red hot Giants team who are on a 6 game winning streak before heading to the Bronx. The A's then travel to Kansas City for what will be the series of the year for them and finish at home vs Cleveland. The A's must put out the fire in San Fran and do well vs New York. Then expect the winner of the Kansas City/Oakland series to be atleast 1 of the Wild Card spots. Oakland can build its win total vs Cleveland.
San Francisco-
We put San Francisco on here for a couple of reasons. They have won 6 straight, they are going in to the final sim still in contention even though they are 6.5 games out of the Wild Card spot and they play a schedule full of playoff teams. The pathway to the playoffs are slim and treacherous for San Francisco. They must win the series vs Oakland if not sweep them. Then they must take 3/4 or sweep Cleveland. Boston and Chicago in the final week could put the steak in the heart for San Francisco but depending on how they do this sim this will be something to build on going in to 2018.
Final Predictions-
ALE- New York
ALC- Chicago
ALW- Los Angeles
ALWC1- Boston
ALWC2- Oakland
Outside Looking in-
Kansas City
San Francisco
Toronto
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